Trends Impacting the Solar Outlook in 2021
The renewable energy industry outpaced coal generation for 153 days versus 39 in 2019. Here’s how the solar industry has evolved and how trends have impacted the solar outlook for 2021.
Read MoreAbout our Solar Analysis: We rely on industry experts within our company and research based on market analysis to review solar policy. Key members of our team have been active in the industry for decades and across several markets in the United States and Canada.
The solar industry can often feel a bit like a rollercoaster, a solar-coaster, with ups and downs and sometimes leaving us all feeling a little sick to our stomachs. To successfully ride it out, solar industry players need to stay focused on the destination and remain flexible enough to adapt to the ebbs and flows of state programs, federal incentives, and regulatory shifts.
Today, the legislative window is open for clean energy stakeholders to see key renewable energy bills moving forward at the federal level. It’s the first time that we are seeing renewed optimism at the federal level since West Virginia, Senator Joe Manchin (D) went on “Fox News Sunday” in December 2021 and effectively killed Biden’s Build Back Better.
Recently, Senator Manchin appeared earnest about returning to the negotiating table. Add in the confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court, and now many Democrats in Congress are once again focused on reviving at least the energy portions of Build Back Better through the budget reconciliation process.
At the same time, the Auxin Solar tariff investigation threatened to derail, or at least dramatically slow, industry progress towards President Biden’s goal of reducing emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. The whole industry breathed a sigh of relief when the Biden administration announced a two-year pause on new tariffs.
A survey of 412 companies by SEIA on the Auxin Impact found that 78% have had projects canceled or delayed. Moreover, more than 90% of community solar and utility-scale solar developers predict a severe or devastating negative impact on their business.
General optimism about the future does not mean the issues facing the renewable energy industry in the U.S. have gone away. The solar industry like other renewables is facing high inflation, continued supply chain problems, and the ongoing tariff investigation. Here’s where proper risk management and strategic planning for uncertainty become critical ingredients to resolution.
Try uncertainty planning using methods like Colin Powell’s 40/70 rule. The 40/70 rule is that the time to evaluate and make a decision is when one has between 40% and 70% of the necessary information. If it’s anything less, it’s purely a guess, but critically, any more, and it’s already too late, the opportunity to act has already passed.
By closely tracking ongoing legislation and working closely with legislators and industry lobbyists, it is possible to effectively make strategic decisions using the limited information available and quickly pivot on that information.
The legislative process for implementing a state’s community solar program is filled with ambiguity regarding critical elements such as program size, bill credit rates, and project eligibility. Therefore, it is crucial to constantly evaluate and reevaluate the trajectory of those features. But waiting until there is certainty surrounding them and the chances of gaining a foothold in the market are incredibly slim.
Succeeding in such a rapidly moving market requires both mindset and flexibility. At OYA Solar, we are constantly evaluating and adjusting to current and future market dynamics and rules. We have built a team and culture around this dynamic mindset, and we are not the only company in the industry thinking like this. Despite the current headwinds, we are confident that the solar industry is well-positioned for continued success and growth.
The renewable energy industry outpaced coal generation for 153 days versus 39 in 2019. Here’s how the solar industry has evolved and how trends have impacted the solar outlook for 2021.
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Read MoreNow nearly halfway through the year, the US solar industry is grappling with reduced business activity, severe curtailing of consumer purchasing capacity, as well as permitting and interconnection delays.
Read MoreThe renewable energy industry outpaced coal generation for 153 days versus 39 in 2019. Here’s how the solar industry has evolved and how trends have impacted the solar outlook for 2021.
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